Ricardo Chavira Chicano

The Nation’s Demographic Landscape: The Ancient is The Future

In 1970, the United States was a really White country.

Specifically, an impressive 87 percent of Americans were White. The rest of us—I am a Chicano—were minorities, not part of the American mainstream.

 It could be argued that to be American was to, in effect, be White. I have first-hand experience of this mindset. I am 100 percent Mexican by blood and a fourth-generation American by birth.

 Traveling in Mexico in the 1970s, some Mexicans I encountered declared that I was lying in claiming to be American.

That couldn’t be so because I was not a gringo, that is tall, fair-skinned with light hair and eyes. In truth, they sometimes contended I was a Mexican immigrant living in the U.S.

A couple of times, I chatted with White compatriots vacationing in Mexico who complimented me on my excellent English. They were surprised to learn that English is my native language.

The United States’ extreme 1970 Whiteness was destined to end. To a large extent, the destiny was set when European immigration nearly ceased, as did large White families.

We know that the United States today is far more ethnically and racially diverse than it was 54 years ago and even more recently than that.

White Americans, AKA European Americans, comprise 58 percent of the nation’s population. That’s about a 33 percent reduction in White demographic dominance compared to 1970.

 Those who embrace diversity celebrate this change. However, xenophobes, radical racists, and even some regular White folks are greatly unsettled by this change. In their eyes, the United States will be unrecognizably altered.

This sentiment is often tied to broader anxieties about shifts in racial and ethnic composition in the United States. 

For instance, studies have shown that changes in attitudes toward immigration and racial issues can be influenced by political and social contexts. During periods of heightened political polarization, such as the Trump presidency, there was a notable shift in attitudes, with some groups becoming more resistant to immigration.

As many of us know, the shift will continue. In 2050, here are the key projections:

Latino Population Growth: By 2050, Latino residents will comprise approximately 25% of the U.S. population. This marks a substantial increase from current figures, reflecting ongoing trends in immigration and higher birth rates among Latino communities. 

Non-Latino White Population: Non-Latino Whites are expected to remain the largest racial group, at just under 50 percent. Still, their proportion of the total population is projected to decline. While they will still be the largest group, their numbers will fall as the population grows. 

This demographic transformation is not abnormal but part of a historical cycle.

Between 12,000 and 14,000 years ago, humans began settling in the Americas. These brown-skinned people numbered between 50 and 80 million in 1492, the year of Columbus’s arrival. Of that number, between 3.8 and 12 million lived in what is now the United States.

The Western Hemisphere was an exclusively brown part of the world. A European and African human tide by 1800 left the Americas’ Indigenous population at 10 to 20 million. Those who lived in the present-day United States totaled about 5.3 million.

The Western Hemisphere Indigenous population rebounded and currently numbers around 56 million.

European interlopers procreated with Indigenous and African women, giving birth to racial hybrids known as mestizos. In my experience, when a White person describes someone as looking Latino, they have a mestizo in mind. We mestizos, however, come in every color.

In addition to me, there are an estimated 142.4 million mestizos in the Americas. A great many are no longer tethered to their countries. They have been entering the United States for decades, hoping to trade destitution for economic survival.

Laws, executive orders, cops, and the nightmare they must endure to arrive at the border will stop some. But others will persevere, as they have been doing. Human smuggling will not stop unless a way is found to shut them down.

The nation’s demographic landscape is reverting to something quite similar to before 1492.