Politicians, pundits, and the press go on and on about “border security,” yet they do not define the term. Do they mean a border no one illegally crosses, or just bad people? Or is it one that stanches the flood of drugs smuggled past the border?
Yet the term appears tightly tied to migrants apprehended or attempting unauthorized border crossings.
Declining border encounters mean fewer people are trying to enter illegally, which indicates improved border security.
That is taken as dogma.
But it is a seriously flawed doctrine.
It ignores “gotaways.” Here is an official explanation, courtesy of Perplexity.
U.S. Code (6 USC § 223(a)(3)) legally defines a “got away” as an unlawful border crosser who:
Is directly or indirectly observed making an unlawful entry into the United States.
He or she is not apprehended.
He or she is not a “turn back,” someone who retreats across the border.
Based on the search results, the number of people who have evaded detection while entering the United States illegally (known as “gotaways”) has varied significantly in recent years.
A disclaimer: Perplexity was provided with these stats and notes. I believe them to be accurate. Also, I have no ethical qualms about using AI to present facts. I do not use AI-generated text unless I clearly credit the source.
Recent Fiscal Year Data
FY 2021: Between 387,398 and 660,000 people evaded apprehension while crossing the southwest border.
FY 2022: 606,131 gotaways
FY 2023: 670,674 gotaways
FY 2024 (partial): More than 175,000 gotaways as of the report date
Cumulative Totals
Between FY 2021 and FY 2023, over 1.6 million gotaways were recorded.
Since FY 2021, at least 1.7 million known gotaways have evaded apprehension.
Historical Comparison
The number of people evading Border Patrol has increased dramatically during recent years compared to the previous decade:
Between FY 2010 and FY 2020, there was a total of 1.4 million gotaways
Annual gotaways ranged from a low of 86,226 in FY 2011 to a high of 171,663 in FY 2013
Numbers began rising in FY 2020, with 136,808 gotaways
Detection Capabilities
It’s important to note that these figures represent “known gotaways” – individuals detected by border security systems but successfully evaded capture. Border Patrol has improved its detection capabilities:
The CBP estimated at-the-border apprehension rate averaged 78% from 2018 to 2020, compared to just 35% from 2002 to 2004
Observational data from border authorities now accounts for between 75% and 100% of model-based estimates of gotaways
Border Patrol Chief Jason Owens has expressed concern about the “140,000 known gotaways” in a recent statement.
The data shows that despite improved detection technologies, the number of people successfully evading border authorities has increased substantially in recent years.
Perplexity information ends here.
This information underscores one of my long-standing convictions that laws, harsh enforcement of immigration policy, and border cops will never succeed in holding back the mass migration moving towards and into the United States.
Certainly, anti-migrant efforts discourage many from leaving home. But millions of other people are undaunted.
Between 2009 and 2024, at a minimum 18 million and a maximum of 22 million Latin Americans attempted to illegally enter the United States. Of those numbers, an estimated 1.2 million to 2.5 million evaded detention and entered the country.
Ricardo Chavira Chicano 